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How Will Winter Weather Affect the UK Lpg Industry?

Jim Dale, senior risk meteorologist at British Weather Services, gives his predictions for the coming winter’s weather and the possibility of another deep freeze.

December 2010 is still raw in the memory. Record-breaking cold, copious snow and more ice than the Arctic…well, it felt like that for some! Putting it simply, it made life hell for millions but, at the same time, put smiles on the faces of youngsters up and down the land.

The overall deviation of mean air temperatures from the average was minus 5ºC.  That, in itself, was astonishing and gave the UK the coldest December since 1890.

In January 2010, we had a taste of things to come – snow for many and a mean air temperature deviation of minus 3ºC. Was that the start of it – could we be heading for another dose of Siberia this winter?

It’s the million dollar question – actually, it’s a £5 billion question, because last December’s icebox cost UK PLC that much, not to mention the cost to other European countries. A similar thing was happened in the US, costing them far more than a million dollars.

So where are we heading? The first thing to say is that, here in the UK, we have just enjoyed a reasonably favourable October and a notably milder than normal November, coming after a very warm end to September – all in all, a tame autumn following a cool and rather wet summer. I’m a big one for nature’s balance so, although it’s not a shoe in, we are certainly due a period of colder than average temperatures, and cold through the dark months of the winter often means frost and potential snow.

But what else can we say to support a harsh winter scenario? La Niña, the ocean-atmospheric phenomena in the southern oceans, is alive and kicking – currently weaker than it was last year, but the global fallout of that particular event was plain to see, not just in terms of cold and snowy northern hemisphere winters, but also global floods and droughts. So that has still to be a player.

The other thing to look at is the potential for ‘blocking’ air pressure patterns over Scandinavia and western Russia – that means stationary high pressure zones that sit still and feed cold northeast winds from Siberia across western Europe. Russia and the continent must go icy first and there are good but very natural signs of that occurring.

When we look back at previously mild autumns, there are several that show up as being followed by cold and snowy winters to one degree or another, with the necessary blocking patterns coming into play during December/January – never absolute and dependent upon  many factors, nevertheless we have the first cogs in place.

Going against the cold winter scenario is the fact that sunspot activity is on the up; indeed, it is set to peak in 2012 at its highest rate for 8,000 years. That is historically said to lead to mild winters – the converse leading to cold winters (the Little Ice Age, etc). Add to that ongoing global warming (yes, we are still warming despite all of the politics), and we have a couple of reasons to think temperate (after all, we are a temperate climate country).

One more reason to add to the pile is balance – yes, the same argument used for cold.  2009 had its unusual deep freeze moments, as did 2010. Surely, three in a row is asking too much of our usually sedentary weather?

So flip a coin – heads, it’s cold, tails, it’s mild. I wish it was that simple. However, at British Weather Services we have our theories and our winter predictions are in full flow.

Despite the scary media headlines, November was always a predominantly mild month, so our early outputs have gone well. December, we think, will show another face – especially in the north and east. But it’s January that is interesting us the most, and could well take the biscuit in the harshest possible sense.

The debate and the forecasts will be ongoing. We do expect to be issuing plenty of our 1-10 day Weather Alerts, with snow encased within, and you can order your own or our monthly or seasonal outlooks by making contact with us.

But, for now, prepare for the worst…we believe we are slowly slipping towards the icebox!

Contact British Weather Services on 01494 715115 www.britishweatherservices.co.uk