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Is the Lp Gas Industry Taking Advantage of the Weather?

By Jim Dale, senior risk meteorologist, British Weather

…And now for the weather forecast. Or should that read…and now for your P&L forecast? Because for every drop of rain, flake of snow and ray of sunshine, there is a commensurate rise and fall in the demand for goods and services, particularly in the lpg industry.

The winter of 2009/10 was the coldest in the UK and Europe for 30 years and, in certain places, it was the coldest and snowiest for almost 50 years. It gave everybody plenty to think about – much of it at the most base level of keeping warm and safe.

Of course, it didn’t help from a preparation perspective that the UK Met Office forecasted a mild winter, following on from its heavily criticised barbecue summer 2009 forecast, which we all know was a damp squib. That isn’t to stamp all over the Met Office’s grave; a forecast is exactly that – a forecast – and forecasts in any industry don’t always go to plan. But why should the nation rely on a single, albeit dominant, provider when there are equally professional and cost effective alternatives available?

Which brings me neatly to British Weather Services. We are Britain’s longest established independent meteorological company. Formed in 1987, we service some of the biggest bookmakers in the world, namely Ladbrokes, Bet 365 and Paddy Power – because sport and weather run parallel in terms of impact. We also service the insurance industry, providing weather alerts, short and long term forecasts and verifications after the event, and a whole host of other business sectors.

From those companies we currently deal with, we know plenty about risk, but we don’t have a crystal ball. What we do have however is pedigree, flexibility, common sense and a record that says British Weather Services has never lost a client due to inaccurate forecasts.

We also have access to a wealth of global weather models that allow us to compare and contrast likely scenarios, from the short term (now casting) through to the long term (three months ahead). To be at the sharp end of weather changes (particularly when they involve extremes) is to be alerted in advance. We call that ‘catching the moment’, which can be critical if you want to get or keep your nose in front.

However, the area that we most excel in is seasonal outlooks. We put these out every month for the UK and beyond – focusing on the coming three months, in general and in detail. They are a live and ever changing output, keeping pace with day-to-day and week-to-week developments in both model output and wider scale hemispheric teleconnections, outlining the probabilities and allowing our clients to plan with confidence.

But we aren’t just about forecasts. We have realised that the weather can be used as an ideal and indisputable marketing tool to enhance the sale of products and services. We have innovative insurance related schemes at our disposal based on an agreed weather parameter being reached that rewards our clients’ customers, for purchasing from them for example. The same schemes can be used in reverse to protect our clients against the wrong kind of weather – so if you happen to fear a wet and miserable summer, you no longer have to take it on the chin.

So how is spring/summer 2010 currently looking? Without entirely giving the game away, a major driving force behind our weather will be the fact that sea temperatures in the northeast Atlantic start off between 1 and 3 degrees below normal. This is likely to suppress ambient air temperatures, but it’ll also help to subdue precipitation, particularly showers.

April showers may well not be as prevalent this year, but it’s going to be a slow recovery in terms of seeing much in the way of extremes of heat. That being said, historical trends suggest a good April does not always bode well for a good summer, with a mixed April allowing a better weather pattern to unfold as the months go by.

If we are going to select a month of dizzy heights this summer, then it has to be July. Now, you might think July nearly always delivers, but you would be mistaken.

We have to go back to 2006 to find a July that delivered in style, because since then every July has been dull, wet and cool. A decent July is now overdue, therefore it’s currently odds on (65 to 35 per cent) that July 2010 will have plenty of sizzling sausages on the go.

your business and think seriously about how you might equip yourself to obtain the best possible meteorological advantage. If we can do it successfully for the bookies, we can do it for you too! Meanwhile, as for the summer – all good things come to those who wait!

Contact British Weather Services on 01494 715115 www.britishweatherservices.co.uk